It’s a Bear Market for Citibin
Introduction:
This week, Liz Picarazzi tells Jay Goltz and William Vanderbloemen that she’s had a couple of big breakthroughs. For Liz, it’s been a challenging few years dealing with the tariffs while also trying to break into a promising new market. Despite the advice of some very smart people who encouraged her to conquer her first market—urban areas plagued by rats—before expanding into additional markets, Liz has invested a lot of time and energy trying to position Citibin to serve towns, parks, and resorts that need trash bins strong enough to withstand bears. For that investment to pay off, however, Liz would have to outsmart her nemesis, an especially ferocious competitor that goes by the name of Seeley. Plus: Jay talks about the plight of small retailers trying to survive while their industry collapses around them. And William tells us how he’s trying to keep up in the AI arms race between employers and employees.
— Loren Feldman
Guests:
Liz Picarazzi is CEO of Citibin.
Jay Goltz is CEO of The Goltz Group.
William Vanderbloemen is CEO of Vanderbloemen Search Group.
Producer:
Jess Thoubboron is founder of Blank Word.
Full Episode Transcript:
Loren Feldman:
Welcome Jay, Liz, and William. It’s great to have you all here. I want to start with you, Liz. I gather you’ve taken another crack at getting your trash enclosures certified as bear-proof. Before you tell us what’s going on, can you remind us what this entails and what happened the last time you tried?
Liz Picarazzi:
Sure, I’m happy to. So to give a little bit more context with the enclosure, Citibin trash enclosures have always primarily been to keep rats out. New York City rats, that’s what we’re built for. We’ve been known that way, and for several years we were getting requests from people in mountain areas, where bears are an issue, if we had a bear-resistant version of our Citibin. And so for a few years, we said no.
But we got enough requests that we realized this is something we should really look into. Why don’t we basically trick out and make a bear-resistant version? It’s made out of steel instead of out of aluminum. It has all the bear-relevant hardware that you may think of if you go to a national park. It’s sort of a paddle-handle latch to open the doors. So we made all those modifications, and part of the reason we did it was that we wanted to get a certificate from the IGBC, which is the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee. You guys can laugh. [Laughter]
Loren Feldman:
Is it made up of grizzly bears?
Liz Picarazzi:
No, it’s made up of some really lovely people, actually, but they weren’t easy on us. We went through all of the modifications to our product so that it met the qualification for IGBC, and then we set out to get it tested, to be certified. So there’s a testing lab for IGBC in East Yellowstone, Montana, and that is where they do product-testing for all different types of bear-resistant products: trash cans, coolers, trash enclosures. And so we started our testing in 2023 and failed. Very surprising. I don’t like that. We failed.
Loren Feldman:
Why did you fail?
Liz Picarazzi:
So it had to do with the mounting mechanism. And I don’t want to go into great detail, but it sort of had to do with alignment of expectations about how the product would be mounted, and it ended up not being mounted at all. And so the bear pushed it over in four minutes—four minutes out of a basically a six-hour test with revolving bears. Every 45 minutes, new bears come in and test the product.
So that was 2023. We made a bunch of revisions. We went in there in 2024, last summer, and the bear legitimately got through. The bin was totally mounted, and it got in the front door. So we videotaped.
Loren Feldman:
How did it get in?
Liz Picarazzi:
Basically, if you’ve ever seen bear testing, you’ll see that they perform CPR on whatever vessel they’re trying to get into. So they’re just repeatedly pushing it over and over and over. The other thing they do is that the food—it’s usually sardines and peanut butter, honey, dog biscuits—that’s rubbed all over the exterior, particularly the hinges and around all the hardware door edges, so they’re smelling that food. That’s incredibly motivating.
So they’re trying to get in there, and they can detect the weak points. The good thing about testing, I will admit, is that it really shows you where the weak areas are. To improve it, there’s no way I would have known that that door wasn’t bear-resistant without getting a grizzly bear to test it. So for the sake of human beings and the sake of the bears, it’s really good that we knew that, because then we looked at the bin after the 2024 test and determined a few key areas where we wanted to make improvements. So that’s the background going into 2025.
Jay Goltz:
Did you pay the grizzly bears? Or are you just exploiting their free labor?
Liz Picarazzi:
We pay for certain tests. You know, these bears are somewhat lucky, because they would have been euthanized. There are only about 10 bears at this center, and that is over the years. So these are bears that all became habituated to human food, and therefore, became not safe to themselves or humans because they would repeatedly go back to the same food sources. And that can become dangerous, and many, many bears every year are euthanized because of that. So we’re not paying the bears, but the bears basically have a lifetime home.
Jay Goltz:
You’re just saving their lives. You are really going right to heaven, no question about it.
Liz Picarazzi:
Okay, so should I move on to 2025?
Loren Feldman:
Yeah, tell us.
Liz Picarazzi:
So, 2025, we take a year to make the changes. We set the date up, and we went to East Yellowstone mid-July to test not one, but two products, because you can test them at the same time, like different days. And the same bear that got into the bin the first two tests—her name is Seeley—was the first bear in the lineup. And there’s a lineup of an entire day of bear tests with six different bears testing throughout the day in shifts of 45 minutes. This bear, Seeley, I found out, was going to be the first one. And I found that out before I went to bed the night before the test. And I did not sleep, because I have seen this bear in slow motion—because we videotape it—get in there. She’s very ferocious. She’s very motivated. And also, she has a lot of experience touching and smelling and being all around this bin. So she’s got two years of familiarity going into it.
So this bear and her sister, Condi, come out, and they’re both really aggressive with the bins at first. But soon after, they started to give up, and they started to go swimming. They were trying to knock over trees. They were playing with each other, obviously looking for food around the habitat and other spaces where the people in the habitat center leave the food. So, long story short, the two module passed after multiple rounds. And so we were totally elated, not entirely surprised, but we were like, “Wow, this took over three years of work. We’ve passed.” Then the next day was the next product that we were going to test, and that we kind of added this last minute. But basically, it’s a smaller version of the one we were testing, and that one passed. So we passed not one, but two products in the session, and we got our official certification last Thursday.
Loren Feldman:
And the certification says exactly what?
Liz Picarazzi:
It says it’s certified by the IGBC as bear-resistant, and that is per the test protocol that we followed.
Loren Feldman:
Congratulations.
Jay Goltz:
Did you get a certificate? Wait, did you get a certificate that’s suitable for framing?
Liz Picarazzi:
I did, Jay. I really did. That was exciting, and I’m gonna send that to you.
Jay Goltz:
What about a T-shirt? Did you get a T-shirt with the picture of the bear on it, or anything? Can we get some of those?
Liz Picarazzi:
Actually, I already have, basically, like stationary and towels and pins with this bear, Seeley. They have all different gear in their gift shop for every bear, and because she was the fiercest competitor that I was most concerned about, I have a soft spot in my heart for her now. Because she failed, and I know how that feels from the previous two years.
Jay Goltz:
Do we get to vote now on whether you made this entire story up? Because it’s quite entertaining, and I feel like I’m on NPR or something, and we’re supposed to decide: truth or fiction? It’s a great story. [Laughter]
Loren Feldman:
So what happens now, Liz? What does it mean that you got certification?
Liz Picarazzi:
Okay, so a number of things. First off, I can sell my bear-resistant bins as IGBC-certified, which is really important. There’s not that many players in the field, and therefore it’s a big deal for us, as a brand, to get into the official mix, because we appeal to towns, cities, resorts that have bear problems. And we have sold into some that did not require the IGBC certification.
But for instance, the town of Aspen in Colorado, we had sold some there, and they basically were like, “We love these, but you have to be IGBC-certified to sell any more.” So we basically already have a build-up of people who want to buy them, but we needed to wait for the IGBC certification. So it’s a very important marketing tool, but it also is important for any sort of town that has a regulation for an IGBC-certified container. And there’s many of them, as well as national parks. So national parks require that I’m IGBC-certified, plus made in the USA, and that is another part of the bear story.
Jay Goltz:
I would like to nominate Liz for the 21 Hats Entrepreneur of the Year award that gets a certificate and a T-shirt, because that is an incredible journey you’ve gone on. And congratulations. [Applause]
William Vanderbloemen:
No kidding, no kidding.
Liz Picarazzi:
Thank you, Jay. Thank you, guys.
Jay Goltz:
I feel like a loser now. What have I been doing for the last year? I feel like a complete loser. You’re out there going and getting bears, tricking bears, and getting the whole thing, and I’ve just been just sitting here doing regular stuff.
Liz Picarazzi:
Well, when you were my age, you would have been doing all this too. You’re just a little bit older. [Laughter]
Jay Goltz:
So now I’m just old. Okay, all right, thank you for pointing that out. I accept that. I’ve lost my edge, you’re telling me.
Loren Feldman:
Liz, I hope you signed Seeley to some kind of influencer contract or endorsement contract.
Liz Picarazzi:
I would love to. We are making an incredible video. Like, when you ask me, Loren, “What’s next?” it’s not just this ability to sell to customers that we know want to buy. But it’s my opportunity to do marketing, which I love, and create videos, launch videos, everything revolving around bears with the focus on Seeley. So I have a video producer who I’ve been working on, and he’s just come up with this amazing, amazing video basically showing these bears performing CPR on my product over three years. And it’s almost done like a home improvement show with the scoring in the background of sort of uncertainty, and then victory at the end.
So I’m really happy to be in that role of creating new marketing and messaging, because at this point, I’m the one who really knows what I want and what I think the market wants. And sometimes, if you’ve done marketing over the years, and you don’t have that blank slate, you’re sort of limited. So this is a canvas of sorts for me, and I’m really feeling very stimulated by that.
Loren Feldman:
Do you have inventory of these products to sell? Or were you waiting until you got certification to ramp up production?
Liz Picarazzi:
The latter. We have always, with the bear bins that we’ve sold—I think we have like 12 or 14 clients—those have always been custom orders with our factory. We didn’t do the full tooling with them yet, and we also had a lot of iteration. So the plan is to put a purchase order in in September for our first order. It’ll be a smallish order, and part of the reason it’s going to be smallish is that it’s not going to be going to Asia. It’s going to be going to the U.S.
Loren Feldman:
Whoa, you found somebody to make them domestically?
Liz Picarazzi:
I did. I did, and this has been in the works for about three or four months now. I didn’t want to share so openly about it, because I didn’t know if it was going to work, but it is looking like it’s going to work. And it may turn out that our supplier for bear will be entirely in the U.S, which will just—you know, two birds with one stone.
Loren Feldman:
Can you tell us any more about who’s going to be doing the fabrication?
Liz Picarazzi:
So I don’t want to go into great detail, but I do have two suppliers. One of them is in the Midwest, and one of them is on the West Coast.
Jay Goltz:
Wait, is one of them in Green Bay, Wisconsin? Because Green Bay hates the bears. That’s a little Chicago joke. [Laughter]
Liz Picarazzi:
Yeah, but, you know, I’m a Sconnie, so my Packers are always going to be in my heart.
Jay Goltz:
Oh, all right, because that would be great if that’s where they were located.
Liz Picarazzi:
So with production, we are actually in the process of getting some sampling done with two different factories, and we’ve already placed a P.O. with one of them. It’s not for bear. It’s for a different product, sort of as a test. But I’ve had this sort of in the background. We’re taking it slow, but all signs are showing at this point that we’re going to be able to manufacture the bear bin in the U.S.
William Vanderbloemen:
That’s awesome.
Loren Feldman:
Yeah, that is amazing. Is this going to be possible, in part, because you can charge more for the bear-proof, and it’ll be a more profitable product line for you?
Liz Picarazzi:
Yeah, it’s partly because of that, but it’s partly that it’s going to open up my market size, like dramatically, with the “Made in the USA.” I couldn’t really even go after a lot of government contracts if I didn’t have that. So that’s really motivating. Even though the price is higher, it is worth it, because then we also have a much shorter supply chain. So with the West Coast factory, we would be able to keep inventory on the West Coast, which is primarily where our customers are. So that’s another supply chain. Just great things. That is just a big part of it.
Jay Goltz:
The fact is, rats are a more subtle problem. You don’t necessarily know you have rats, but when the bear goes and rips open your garbage can, you come out. And you know you’ve got a huge problem. So I can totally see where they’d be more anxious to go spend the money on it, because they come out, and what do they do? The garbage can’s been ripped apart. I mean, that’s a huge problem.
Liz Picarazzi:
Yeah, I mean the food that we put out for animals, you know, rats eat it, and it’s human beings’ fault, but bears eat it, too, and it’s human beings’ fault. But we think they’re cute. And we don’t always think about the impact on even the community. Like, if you’re not taking care of a problem with a bear coming into your neighborhood, that affects everybody else, and that’s part of the reason why some of these towns are mandating the bear enclosures, because the amount of human-bear contact is increasing every year.
Loren Feldman:
Are there competitive products trying to solve that same problem?
Liz Picarazzi:
There are, there’s a couple. There’s one major player that, if you go into most national parks, you’re going to see a certain type of enclosure that has the paddle handles, where you push your hand in and push a lever and the door opens. That’s a standard bear-resistant enclosure. They’re really big, and that’s another thing that I’m excited about. There aren’t that many players, and if I were a government buyer, I would really like to have two, three, four options. And right now, I would guess that this competitor probably owns about 90 percent of the market. And I’m going to go eat their lunch.
Loren Feldman:
Like a bear. [Laughter] Liz, through the years, we’ve talked about this at various points, and I know you’ve gotten some advice—maybe on the podcast as well as off the podcast—that you shouldn’t be diverting your focus from your main business, that there’s plenty of business for you in New York City and other urban areas for your rat-proof enclosures. You should go after that market, satisfy that, and then think about expanding in other ways. You obviously didn’t take that advice. How are you thinking about that today?
Liz Picarazzi:
I’m glad that I didn’t take their advice, because I passed the test. You know, if I had to put another year of time and resources into this, if we had failed in July, I definitely would have thought, “Okay, this is a suck on your time.” We’ve been actually working to develop that market for over three years now—even before we started the testing. So we have long lead lists. We’re going to be doing a lot of marketing. We’re going to be meeting with towns that have already expressed an interest. So I don’t feel like I’m chasing after something where I have a solution and there’s not enough of a need. There’s a very clear need with very few solutions. And I want to be a part of that.
I don’t want to wait for someone else to come in. And there’s an adaptation of our product to make it bear-resistant. But it still is a modification of my product, and that’s what I’ve been able to do with everything. It’s modular. You know, you can have a planter. You can have a package locker. You can have it bear-proof. You can have it sanitation-worker hefty. It’s not like it’s a whole new business. It is a new product line, and yes, it is a different customer. But I have really spent a lot of time wrapping my head around: Who is the customer? What do they need? And how do I get through to them? So I’m not starting from zero. I’ve got this time in and I really am, at this point, it’s sort of executing.
Jay Goltz:
Have you considered doing another name? Because Citibin, while it works great for rat enclosures, I don’t know. If you were starting from scratch and just came up with this bear thing, I think you’d probably have a different name that somehow—
Liz Picarazzi:
I do, Jay. I’m actually going to share it here. I don’t know when exactly this is going to be published, but the name of the bear-resistant Citibin is the Grizzbin. [Laughter]
Jay Goltz:
Okay!
William Vanderbloemen:
Nice!
Liz Picarazzi:
The Grizzbin by Citibin, so it has its own separate product name, but it’s underneath the umbrella, and we wanted to keep the same convention of having the word “bin” in the name.
Loren Feldman:
Do you have the URL?
Liz Picarazzi:
I do. And I also have an Instagram profile that I haven’t even started populating yet. So that’s another sort of blank slate. Instead of feeling like, “Oh my God, I don’t have anything there,” it’s, “I build it.”
Jay Goltz:
Have you got a tagline, like, “Not endorsed by bears.” [Laughter]
Loren Feldman:
Or “by Seeley”?
Liz Picarazzi:
Yeah, Seeley. Seeley gave up. Maybe something about, “Bears give up with the Grizzbin.” Like, when I was watching the test, and I saw the bears give up and walk away and go swimming, I saw that they were giving up, and that really was a sign that that is what they do when they no longer have a reliable food source.
Loren Feldman:
When you decided to keep pursuing this a couple of years ago, you didn’t really know that the tariffs were coming, and you couldn’t have known that this would unlock domestic manufacturing for you. It just seems like this has paid off in ways that you couldn’t even have anticipated back then.
Liz Picarazzi:
I have mixed feelings about that, because you are right. The tariffs have stimulated me to chart different courses or diversify my supply chain. A lot of smart people I know, early in talking about this, they immediately understand that Trump’s policies have transformed my business in a way that they feel uncomfortable with. Not like, “Oh, damn it. Liz, you’re proving him wrong,” but a little bit of disappointment that the mandate has led to this, this thing, the ability to manufacture here. So I don’t really know how to explain it, but sometimes, and I guess this is super personal, which I know Loren you like, is that I don’t necessarily want people to know that it was this bear thing and the tariff thing that enabled me to come to the U.S. But it’s true.
Loren Feldman:
Well, the world works in funny ways sometimes.
Jay Goltz:
That’s a whole new version of entrepreneur guilt.
Liz Picarazzi:
It is.
Jay Goltz:
I hear what you’re saying, because there’s other people that are not going to be able to find a solution like that, and it just worked. It worked out for you. But I hear your point that you don’t want to be an advertisement for, “Oh, look at this. The tarrifs are a good thing. Look how it helped me.” Because, you know, some people are going to have a much harder time with this, because there was a certain amount of luck involved that bears are the whole thing.
Liz Picarazzi:
Yeah, and then the other thing, to put this into context, which is really important, is that I don’t plan on moving everything away from Asia just because of this. I plan on keeping probably a good 50-to-75 percent of my production in Vietnam, because they’re doing a great job—even with the tariff. I know the Trump stuff is just temporary. It may be three years for me, but this whole thing has taught me: I need to have diversification of my supply chain.
And if I need to have factories in China, Vietnam, West Coast, Midwest, four different factories ready to produce, that makes me feel safer. Planning is difficult because you’re dealing with four different factories, but just because this thing with bear has passed, and we’re going to manufacture that in the U.S., that’s probably not even 5 percent of my sales. So it’s not like, “Oh, Victoria, she’s moving things to the U.S.” I’m moving like 5 percent of my production to the U.S. For now.
William Vanderbloemen:
You could probably, like you could probably instantly double that in marketing swagger if you just said, “Our U.S. made products are peacefully convincing Canadian bears who are here illegally to go home.” [Laughter]
Liz Picarazzi:
Oh my God, that’s the best. Can I write that down and use it?
William Vanderbloemen:
Absolutely.
Liz Picarazzi:
Wait, but maybe the bear is Russian?
William Vanderbloemen:
Could be, could be.
Jay Goltz:
Well, they’re self-deporting. They’re self-deporting.
William Vanderbloemen:
Right, peacefully solving the immigration crisis one bear at a time.
Jay Goltz:
So I think the entrepreneur lesson from this is what we all have to do: Do what you can. You kept moving along. And we have to deal with things. And you do what you can, and sometimes you can find a solution, and good for you. You worked it out.
Liz Picarazzi:
Well, and I’ve gotten advice over the years—to Loren’s point—to focus more. A number of people told me that. Carey Smith told me that a few years ago, when I wanted to expand nationwide. And our own Paul Downs told me that way before 21 Hats, when I knew him, like 10 years ago, when I was talking about shifting from custom Citibins to pre-fabricated kits. And he, too, was sort of like, “Focus on what you’re good at before you move ahead.” And in both cases, with both of those people, I’ve listened to their advice, but I proceeded and moved ahead with what my plan was.
Jay Goltz:
Okay, I never told you that, because I don’t—that whole thing, “stick to the knitting?” Okay, sometimes that makes sense. Sometimes it doesn’t. I think any kind of blanket advice to an entrepreneur, “Oh, stick to what you’re good at.” That might be really bad advice, because maybe you stumbled into something that was actually better than what you started with. So I wasn’t one of those people.
Loren Feldman:
Although, as you say, that advice has been good advice for a lot of people.
Jay Goltz:
For sure, sometimes it is. For sure. Like me opening up a pizza place, probably not a good idea. [Laughter]
Loren Feldman:
You’re the one who brought it up a couple of episodes ago, Jay.
Jay Goltz:
I know. I’ve already talked myself out of it.
Loren Feldman:
Liz, I just want to get back to one thing. You said that the market for the bear enclosures would be 5 percent. I assume that’s the first year, and I’m guessing that you think that down the line, it could be a much larger percentage of your sales. Correct?
Liz Picarazzi:
Yes, yes.
Jay Goltz:
But correct me if I’m wrong: If you look at the market, there are far more people in the United States who have problems with rats than have problems with bears.
William Vanderbloemen:
Well, there are more rats than bears.
Jay Goltz:
Way more.
Liz Picarazzi:
Way more.
Jay Goltz:
A million times more.
Loren Feldman:
There are way more rats than people.
Jay Goltz:
Right. And there’s more cities. The point is, you started in Yellowstone Park. Okay, that’s the obvious place. There aren’t that many, you know. I’m sure that the rat problem is a much bigger problem.
William Vanderbloemen:
Was it Edison or Ford, or one of the guys in that time I heard said, “If you want to eat with the classes, you have to feed the masses”? So that rat problem is probably going to carry the business more than the bear problem.
Liz Picarazzi:
Right, right. I mean, I think the market size is limited because of that reason: There’s less of a bear issue than there is a rat issue. But within the category of bear, there is such a concentration with this one player that, for me, that is a market size. Because essentially, I’m bringing myself in there as a second or third option to what they already have. And so they’re somewhat self-selecting.
Jay Goltz:
Well, you personally have a problem now, in that it’s one thing to have rats pissed at you, but it’s another thing to have bears pissed at you, because they’re much bigger.
Loren Feldman:
That’s why she lives in Brooklyn.
William Vanderbloemen:
Some of them, you act big and run toward, and others you run away. I mean, it’s a whole—
Jay Goltz:
And you’ve got to know which is which.
William Vanderbloemen:
Now, I will say, I am thinking product funnel for you. You know, those people who have bear problems probably own companies who need to hear about the original business.
Loren Feldman:
Oh, so you’re saying that somebody who buys the bear product—
William Vanderbloemen:
Probably owns businesses and properties, maybe rental properties.
Loren Feldman:
And have a need for the rat product.
Jay Goltz:
That’s interesting, because I’m not sure if somebody has a bear problem—I assume they’re not in a dense population. That’s an interesting question: How much overlap? How many people in this United States have a problem with both bears getting into their garbage and rats? That’s interesting, because New York obviously doesn’t have any bear problems. And then the question is: Are there places that get both?
William Vanderbloemen:
But your CEOs have a home in Aspen with bear problems.
Liz Picarazzi:
Yeah, I mean, we’re going to be doing a lot of press, and I think whenever we get good media, the new customer type will come out of the woodwork. And then we’re like, “Oh, HOAs. Oh, this HOA has a problem with bears in Denver.” You just never know. I mean, this is something I expect to get some pretty good press on, because it’s about bears, and I can talk about rats and bears. And I think, Loren, wouldn’t you agree, most reporters would like to write about that?
Loren Feldman:
Yeah, it’s an interesting story, and there are all kinds of ways to have fun with it, sure. But you know, ultimately, it’s the success of the business that will drive those stories. All right, Jay, I don’t quite know how to do this transition, but you and I have been talking recently about your business and the picture framing industry, and sorry to say, it’s not quite as happy or entertaining a story as the one Liz just presented us with.
Jay Goltz:
No, I’ll tell you what it’s a story of. It’s a story of, to Liz’s point: I’m old. I’ve been in this industry, I’ve been framing pictures, literally—using the word properly—for 50 years, since I was a teenager, and things have changed in 50 years. When I graduated college—I’m a middle Baby Boomer—the Baby Boomers were getting out of college, traveling, buying posters, and they drove the framing industry. And the framing industry grew dramatically over the next 30 years.
And then you get to 2000, and all of a sudden, the Baby Boomers, the oldest ones, are in their 50s, and slowly but surely, they stop framing pictures. And their kids are not framing pictures. And then the TV comes out to go on walls. That took some market share. And then some big chain stores got into it. So the point is, in 2000 there were about 25,000 frame shops in America. Now there’s 6,000. With that being said, framing is not going away.
Loren Feldman:
But you’ve suggested to me that the industry, in some ways, is going through a transition.
Jay Goltz:
Yeah, when you go from 25,000 frame shops down to six, you start to have issues. So the issues now are the suppliers are consolidating, and there’s less suppliers. There’s only one mat board company now. There used to be two, then one bought the other one. And there were two or three different metal frame companies. Now there’s only one.
The industry has shrunk. And again, I still do a lot of business framing pictures, and people love framing pictures, and they want framing—not a huge part of the population, but whatever, two, three, four percent of people still want pictures framed. But you can’t help but notice the industry has shrunk. For instance, there used to be half a dozen trade shows every year for picture framing, and now there’s one.
Loren Feldman:
Do people go to the trade show?
Jay Goltz:
Yeah, but even at its peak, only probably 15-20 percent of framers go to a trade show, which I think is ridiculous. I think everybody should go to their national trade show. And then I’m buddies with the business editor of Picture Framing magazine. I’m tight with the people who run the magazine, and you know, they’re my age, and they’re going to eventually retire. So it’s just interesting watching where it’s going to end up.
And there are some industries—like, I went to get a lawnmower for somebody. The lawnmower places are going out of business because lawn mowers are now electric. They don’t need to be repaired. So, like, poof. I don’t know that there’s going to be any lawn mower repair places left. They’re almost down to nothing, as it is. So it begs the question… There’s still a need for framing out there, but the industry has shrunk. Now, is that a problem, or is it just right-sizing? Okay, maybe it’s just right-sizing. But it’s concerning that there’s only one glass company. There’s only one mat board company. There’s only one metal frame company.
Loren Feldman:
What direct impact does that have on you? Does that mean your prices for those things are all going up?
Jay Goltz:
Not necessarily. It’s just like the glass company has a monopoly. I’m not saying they’re taking advantage of anybody, but they’re part of a huge company, a multi-billion-dollar company. We’re getting to a point where the suppliers are pretty much becoming monopolies. So, I don’t know. It’s just a little concerning. And I don’t believe the framing business is going away. And I have to say, the five or six thousand that are left are the better frame shops, and I sell wholesale into many of them. They’re doing well. They’re healthy. They’re serving a purpose out there in the world. People want professional help getting framing done. You can go to a chain store, but it’s not the same thing. So, I do believe that the people who are in the frame business can continue to do well.
Loren Feldman:
When was the last time someone came to you and said, “I’m thinking of opening a frame store?”
Jay Goltz:
Well, I had an interesting phone call. There’s a chain of frame stores. They had 300 frame stores. Now, if you go on their website, I think they’re down to 40 from 300.
Someone calls me and he says, “Jay, I noticed you’re the big guy in the framing industry. I read your articles. I know you speak at the trade shows. I thought I would just ask you this question: I’m thinking of getting in the frame business, but I’m confused. I went to three of these chainstores of the franchise. I went into three of them, and all three told me the same thing. They all said, ‘The business isn’t making money. It’s not doing what I thought.’ But I’m not sorry I bought the franchise.”
And I said, “Oh, I can explain that. It’s easy. The ones that figured out they shouldn’t have bought it, they’re out of business. These people are still in delusion. They’re still holding on, hoping.” The joke in framing used to be, “Why is framing so expensive?” And I said, “Let’s stop asking that.” Framing is not inexpensive. The question is: Why do so many people do it? And the reason is because it’s fabulous. Because if you’ve ever seen somebody who brought their cherished whatever in, and they framed it, and they pick it up, it’s a beautiful thing. And they hang it on their wall, and it hangs there for the rest of their life.
So framing still has a use in the world, but it’s smaller than it used to be. But I’m looking at the other small retailers that are out there. Like in Chicago, there’s pretty much no shoe stores left. I mean, it’s unbelievable. There’s just a few, like, between Nordstroms and getting it online, the shoe industry is almost wiped out. Men’s clothing stores? Every small men’s clothing store that I grew up with, there’s one left out of 20.
Loren Feldman:
Do you have any advice for someone who’s in the frame business and struggling to hang in?
Jay Goltz:
I would say to them: You’d better be doing better framing, because if they want crummy framing, they can go to the chain stores. Anyone who walks into a custom frame shop has made a conscious decision they want something professionally done with someone who knows what they’re doing. Because the chain stores train people for like three hours and throw them out on the counter, and framing is not that simple.
And I’m confident that the independent frame store owner, with well-trained staff, are doing a much more professional, better job, and it does make a difference. Not only does it look better, but you’re preserving their art. There is a level of expertise that’s necessary, so I would say to an independent frame store owner: Go to the trade show, improve your skills. Find better stuff. Be more professional. Because there are people who want that.
Loren Feldman:
Have you thought about a bear-resistant frame? [Laughter]
Jay Goltz:
I am now, of course. I was making notes to myself. As soon as we’re done here, I’m going to be looking into that.
Loren Feldman:
William, how are you doing? We haven’t heard from you in a little while.
William Vanderbloemen:
Yeah, I’ve been on summer leave, and that was a good time and very restorative for us. And also good for the company. If you’ve listened to this for any length of time, my hope is that I am not the lid for our company living and thriving for a long time. So every summer, I take time off and have a little less involvement. And I was very pleased with how things went while we were gone.
We’re in the midst of working as hard as we can on integrating new technology into our work so that we can do the part that’s human more thoroughly and automate the rest. So that’s a fun new time to learn for me, and it is the wild, wild west when it comes to AI and what things are going to look like in a service industry. So it’s fun to be in a time of learning, without it being a time where we’re grasping at straws and wondering what to do.
Loren Feldman:
Can you give us a sense of what you’re learning and what you’re excited about?
William Vanderbloemen:
I’m taking courses in AI leadership. I’m in a couple of think tanks to try and get past treating ChatGPT like Google on steroids. What does this really mean for a business plan, and what are the things that can be automated? And I think the the image that keeps coming to my mind, for me, right now is that I’m realizing the world of AI—at least generative AI and some predictive AI—is sort of like the feeling you might get if you had a thousand college interns at your fingertips, 24/7. And they could go remove a whole lot of grind hours of labor, but you do have to go back and check their work.
And so we’re starting to think through that strategically. What does that feel like for a client? How can we anticipate what their concerns are going to be about candidates? How can we learn more about them so we can better fit a candidate to their organization? And I think removing some of the static that comes with sort of intern-level work then puts us in a place where it’s like: Okay, we really are getting paid to think and provide discernment and human interaction. And those are the things that I’m hoping and banking on being skills that will last and become more and more a commodity and competitive advantage.
Jay Goltz:
So has your market—now I’ve been in business way longer than you, 50 years. Things change.
William Vanderbloemen:
I heard earlier that you’re old. [Laughter]
Jay Goltz:
Yes, that’s been established. Now, 50 years is a long time. So the question is, you’ve been in business for what? 20 years?
William Vanderbloemen:
Not even: 17.
Jay Goltz:
Okay, all right, 17 years. So the question is: Has your market changed? Are there less churches than there used to be?
William Vanderbloemen:
Yeah, great question. No, it’s a great question. That’s a whole podcast [episode]. But the short version is: The market looks very, very good for what we do. I think how we deliver it will change over time, and we’re just trying to be a little out in front of that.
Jay Goltz:
So it’s interesting. Liz found a new market that’s been around for a long time. Your market hasn’t changed much. And my market has been changing dramatically—that’s what business is. There are some businesses that are still in the mature stage or declining and growing. It just shows you, it depends on what your business is.
And like I said, if I was the poor guy who owned the lawnmower shop and snow blowers? I have to tell you, it was very sad when I stopped by this place I went to, and there was a sign in the door: “We’ve retired after 37 years. Things have changed.” And, you know, blah, blah, blah. And, actually, I was sad. I mean, I knew these guys for years, and I had to remind myself, “Okay, my business isn’t going away like that.” But there are businesses that are just slowly but surely disappearing.
William Vanderbloemen:
I’ve said to the kids forever—you know, we’ve got all these children we’ve raised. We’ve got every Playskool version of kitchen and all the things, and they love the cash register. You know, we’re going to sell at the grocery store on the preschool cash register. I’m like, “Some poor family had a family business for making cash registers.” And that’s over.
Jay Goltz:
Absolutely. I have one in my showroom. I have my father’s original push finger from when I was eight years old. I got it down there. But a cash register was a big deal. They cost thousands of dollars back in the day, and that was a major investment for a store owner. And you’re right. Poof, they’re gone!
Loren Feldman:
William, back to AI for a minute. You were talking about using it to do kind of the grind work. I’m curious whether you’re also using it to do some of the analytical work. Are you using it to review resumes?
William Vanderbloemen:
We’re getting there. Well, I think, if not now, within a year, every resume will be generated by AI. So for the next, at least five years, I think things will look too good. People’s resumes will be too perfect. So how do I figure out what’s a real resume and what’s not? How do I get somebody who’ll dig behind the tech and the AI to figure out if somebody really is who they say they are?
Loren Feldman:
Is it an arms race? Will you be using AI to combat the AI that the candidates are using?
William Vanderbloemen:
Hopefully, it’s in conjunction with. Everything that I’m learning—and I’m not even sophomoric yet on this; I’m very freshman-level learning. But everything I’m learning from the smartest people I can find is: Quit thinking of AI as a replacement. Think of it as a new tool. The people who learn to wield the tool will be in front, and whether or not we all get replaced is a whole different thing.
For instance, say I gotta present candidates to a really tough search committee. And we’ve had some of the most brilliant people on search committees. I remember one, we had eight members of the search committee, and there were 12 Ivy League degrees. You know, crazy smart people. What if you could say, “All right, here’s the profile of the church and the pastor they’re looking for. Here’s the slate of candidates we have. Here are the board members, and I’m going to upload all my notes on each board member. Take the role of a skeptic and tell me which one of these board members is not going to like which one of these candidates, and what can I do to head that frustration off at the pass?” So that level of strategy, yes.
Loren Feldman:
You’re there, or you’re hoping to get there?
William Vanderbloemen:
We’re starting to implement that as an SOP. So we’re not there, but part of where we’re headed is some predictive about: “What are they going to like or not like about this?”
Liz Picarazzi:
I don’t see myself ever going that way. I just don’t see it. I feel like resumes are so difficult as it is to figure out someone, a list of credentials. So some of the soft stuff… I don’t know. Some people that are really great don’t even have degrees, and you’re not going to be able to get to them if AI is going to have “college degree” as a filter.
Loren Feldman:
But you can adjust the filters.
William Vanderbloemen:
Well, you know, this is a fun thing for me to do with what I do, because Liz, I just say, “Okay, so they have to have a graduate degree?” “Yep.” “Do they have to have an undergraduate degree?” “Yep.” Well, all right, you’re a church board member. You just ruled out Jesus, so he’s no longer a candidate. And, oh, and let’s see, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg.
And I don’t think AI is going to pick based on check boxes. And I think that’s where the human interaction, what we do—I don’t know that we’ll do as much of the process five years from now, but I think the parts we do we could actually charge more for, because it’s the things that cannot be automated. Who did we miss who doesn’t have a degree? Who did we think too much of because their resume looks so perfect?
Jay Goltz:
You’d want to know: Who can walk on water?
William Vanderbloemen:
Well, actually, Jay, it’s, “Who can walk on water and not track anything on the damn carpet when you get home?” [Laughter]
Loren Feldman:
All right, my thanks to Jay Goltz, William Vanderbloemen, and Liz Picarazzi. Thanks for sharing.
