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Episode 312: Maybe AI Won’t Destroy My Business
Maybe AI Won’t Destroy My Business

This week, Paul Downs, Jaci Russo, and Sarah Segal revisit a question that came up on the podcast more than a year ago: Is artificial intelligence going to doom professional service firms like Jaci’s branding agency and Sarah’s PR firm? So far, both Jaci and Sarah are feeling pretty good about their prospects. In fact, they’re seeing changes in the market that suggest AI may be helping rather than undermining their businesses. Paul, meanwhile, has encountered a different kind of AI mystery. For years, his custom conference table business has depended heavily on people finding him through Google. Recently, he discovered that his organic search traffic has fallen about 35 percent. That sounds alarming—except that his business is doing great. Paul says his tables are selling like “hotcakes,” and he’s backlogged into February. So what exactly is happening when traffic falls but sales keep growing?

Plus: In our latest Beyond Small segment, sponsored by Grasshopper Bank, Paul, Jaci, and Sarah talk about the financial processes they still insist on doing manually—even when technology could probably do more of the work for them. In each case, part of the reason is that doing the work themselves gives them a view into their operations that they don’t want to lose. As Sarah puts it, while she already knows how to handle public relations, “I am learning how to be a business owner every day.”

Can an Owner Really Know What’s Going On?
TIME TO LISTEN: 46:28

This week, Jay Goltz and William Vanderbloemen tackle a problem that business owners may associate with big companies: What happens when an employee becomes convinced that his or her manager is making bad decisions, but going through normal channels just isn’t working? Jay says he absolutely wants employees to speak up, even if that means going over a manager’s head. William agrees that there are times when an employee has to escalate a problem. But as the conversation unfolds, both acknowledge something that can be easy for an owner to underestimate: Speaking up can feel extraordinarily risky to employees. And how is that information going to surface then?

And in our latest Beyond Small segment, Jay and William discuss what, if anything, another bank could offer that would persuade them to move their business—and why both have grown wary of what happens when smaller banks get swallowed by bigger banks. Plus: How should owners think about the forecast of a prominent economics group that a severe downturn is likely to hit in 2030? And William talks about how his wife’s cancer diagnosis has changed the way he thinks about time, work, and succession. As one of his older golf partners put it, life is like a roll of toilet paper: “It goes really fast at the end.”

You Just Lowered the Value of Your Business
TIME TO LISTEN: 48:43

Earlier this year, Ted Wolf suggested that Paul Downs should take a serious look at how artificial intelligence might improve his custom woodworking business. Paul was skeptical—but he invited Ted and his team to come visit the shop and see for themselves. This week, Ted reports back. He came away impressed by the business Paul has built but also convinced that Paul has a problem: As Ted sees it, too much of what makes the company work still resides in Paul’s head. Ted believes AI could help capture some of that knowledge, improve everything from estimating to production, and, perhaps most important, prepare the company to run one day without Paul.

Paul remains unconvinced. He agrees that AI will find its way into the business eventually, but he questions whether it can capture the judgment, experience, and nuance required to build one-of-a-kind products. His inclination is to let the next owners figure that out. “So Paul,” Ted responds, “if they’re going to have to deal with it, you just lowered the value of your company.” Which raises a question that goes well beyond AI: If you hope someday to sell or transfer your business, how much of what you know has to be captured before you leave?

Plus: In our latest Beyond Small segment, sponsored by Grasshopper Bank, I ask Paul, Ted, and Lena McGuire what would happen if their businesses suddenly doubled. Would they be thrilled—or terrified? Could they handle the growth? And would they even want it? That leads to a discussion that comes up here fairly often: How big do you really want your business to be?

She Thought She Was Building a Prospecting Tool for Herself
TIME TO LISTEN: 53:03

This week, Jaci Russo, Liz Picarazzi, and David C. Barnett talk about something entrepreneurs are always being told they have to do: innovate. But how do you know which ideas are worth pursuing, how much time and money to put into them, and when an experiment starts to become something much bigger? Jaci Russo may be finding out. What started as a prospecting system she built for herself—with AI, verified data, and a simple CRM—has turned into ProspectDaily, a subscription product that attracted more than 100 customers before she even announced it. That has Jaci thinking the tool could do more than generate a little extra revenue. As AI makes it easier for clients to do more of their own marketing, she sees ProspectDaily deepening client relationships and ultimately changing the nature of her business. So far, she says, the hard costs of creating the tool amount to $185. (Try ProspectDaily for free.)

Liz, meanwhile, is spending $10,000 this year testing whether old New York City trash cans and other recycled plastics can be turned into a new cladding material for Citibin. And she’s itching to spend another $30,000 on the equipment to manufacture the material once she determines whether customers actually want it. Both Liz and Jaci kept their projects quiet early on. As Liz explains, “I have so many ideas all the time. I didn't want there to be eye-rolling, ‘Oh, here's another of her things.’"

Plus: In our latest Beyond Small segment, brought to you by Grasshopper Bank, the owners compare how closely they watch their numbers, which metrics matter most, and whether spending time on financials gets in the way of doing the work they really want to do—like coming up with new products.

We’re Growing. Now I Want to Make Money
TIME TO LISTEN: 52:27

This week, Sarah Segal tells David C. Barnett and Jay Goltz that she has decided it’s time to pay more attention to something that can occasionally get lost amid the other demands of running a business: making money. Sarah’s agency is having a very good year, with revenue growing 40 to 50 percent. But she’s realized that growth alone isn’t enough. She wants to know exactly what it costs to hire each employee, what it costs to service each client, whether her fees are covering those costs—and what has to change if she’s going to hit a 20 percent profit margin. She’s also confronting something a lot of owners struggle with: how much to pay herself. For years, Sarah says, she’s been inclined to put the money back into the business rather than pay herself a market rate salary. Now she’s trying to do both—raise her own compensation while making the business more profitable.

Along the way, Sarah, Dave, and Jay weigh in on how owners can fool themselves about profitability, why growing businesses eventually require real budgets, and what owners should actually expect from their banks. Is a bank merely a safe place to park your cash, or can you expect it to help you finance and build your business?

Plus: When should a new business start paying its owner a salary? Dave argues that until a business can pay the owner for the work he or she is doing, it’s more of a hobby than a business. He also explains how entrepreneurs can get trapped in money-losing businesses—not necessarily because they still believe in the business, but because loans, leases, and personal guarantees can make shutting down even more expensive than continuing to operate. The episode is brought to you by Grasshopper Bank.

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With My New Rent, I Will Clear Nothing

This week, we start with a business owner who’s just learned his rent is jumping 40 percent and who sees three options: accept the new rent and essentially work for free, move and start over, or shut down and get a job. But when Paul Downs, Jay Goltz, and Ted Wolf do the math, they see another option—one the owner doesn’t seem to have considered.

From there, the conversation turns to the choices owners make when the answer isn’t obvious. Paul, as it happens, is wrestling with two of those himself. Before the year began, he developed a plan to start selling his custom conference tables in the Middle East. Then the missiles started flying. Does he still spend $30,000 to see whether the opportunity is real, or should he put that money to work closer to home? And then there’s a potentially lucrative R&D tax credit that Paul thinks could be “a gift from heaven.” He believes his company qualifies for the credit, but he also wonders whether claiming it could invite unwanted scrutiny from the IRS.

Different decisions, different stakes, but the same question: As Paul puts it, “What is your appetite for risk?”

My Succession Plan Just Moved to Montana

Jaci Russo has had quite a summer. First, her husband and business partner, Michael, underwent an unexpected quadruple bypass. Fortunately, Michael's recovering well, and their branding agency passed an important test: With both founders largely out of commission, the team kept the business running and the clients happy. But that wasn't the only surprise Jaci had to deal with. For the past several years, she and Michael thought they knew exactly how they would eventually leave the business. They had a succession plan. They had a timetable. And they had already begun putting the pieces in place. Now, they're back to figuring it out.

This week, Jaci tells Jay Goltz what happened and how she's thinking about her options now. It's a reminder that succession planning isn't just about choosing among selling to family, employees, investors, or some other buyer. It's also about recognizing that circumstances change, people change, and even a plan that once seemed settled can suddenly become anything but.

Plus: We check in with Jay to see whether he's received the hundreds of thousands of dollars he's expecting in tariff refunds. And with Wayfair reporting improved sales, I ask Jay whether that's a sign the furniture business is finally recovering—or whether Wayfair's gains might actually be bad news for independent home stores like his. This episode is brought to you by Grasshopper Bank.

You’re Pre-Qualified for a 13% Loan! (That Really Costs 170%)
TIME TO LISTEN: 50:28

This week, we begin with the story of Paloma Corona, the owner of a thriving preschool in Los Angeles who needed money to expand to a second location. She thought she was borrowing at an annual percentage rate of 13 percent. In reality, the effective APR was 170 percent. She also thought she was taking out a loan. Instead, she was placed in a merchant cash advance—an increasingly common form of financing that can sidestep many of the laws governing traditional loans. The daily payments quickly began draining not only the profits from her business, but also her personal savings. Her business survived, but only because a nonprofit lender stepped in to refinance the debt. Paloma’s story is especially troubling because she wasn’t reckless, uninformed, or running a failing business. She was trying to build a good business. But she was up against a financing industry that has become remarkably skilled at making extraordinarily expensive money look fast, easy, and affordable.

My guests today have all been fighting this problem from different vantage points. Jay Goltz owns a picture framing business and a home furnishings store in Chicago. Ami Kassar helps business owners secure SBA and other responsible financing. And Louis Caditz-Peck, who helped build LendingClub’s small business operation, is now executive director of the Responsible Business Lending Coalition.

In our conversation, we talk about why good businesses get steered into bad financing, how brokers can earn more by recommending the most expensive products, why offers embedded in platforms such as QuickBooks, PayPal, and DoorDash can be especially tempting, and what business owners should do before accepting fast money. We also ask what seems like a remarkably simple question: What could possibly be the argument against requiring every small-business financing company to disclose, clearly and prominently, the true annual percentage rate it is charging? This episode is brought to you by Grasshopper Bank.

‘I Want My Employees Building My Business, Not Theirs’
TIME TO LISTEN: 50:46

Side hustles have gone mainstream. More employees than ever are starting businesses of their own—sometimes to earn extra income, sometimes as insurance against layoffs, and sometimes because they dream of becoming entrepreneurs themselves. But what does that mean for the businesses they already work for? If you invest months in training an employee, isn’t it fair to expect that person to devote their best energy to helping your company grow? That's not an immediate concern for Lena McGuire, who's still a solopreneur. But as she prepares to hire and train her first employees, she worries about investing in people who ultimately may see her business as a stepping stone. Sarah Segal isn’t as concerned, but she does want her employees to view their jobs as careers, not placeholders. And then there's Channon Kennedy. While working full time at Silicon Valley Bank, Channon invented a woodworking tool, got it manufactured, landed national distribution, and traveled the country to trade shows—all, she says, without letting her day job suffer. And that’s what she expects from her employees with side hustles.

Meanwhile, both Lena and Sarah are wrestling with another challenge: finding the right home for their growing businesses. Lena needs a showroom but doesn't want to sink money into leased space—and she can't find a building to buy. "I'm missing out on growth," she says. "I feel like I'm stalled." Sarah has opened a second office in Silicon Valley, but she's wondering whether it's time to leave her quirky “starter” office in San Francisco for something that better reflects where her business is headed. Buying would be ideal, but that's easier said than done in San Francisco these days.

Plus: Sarah recently did something she hadn't done in almost a decade as a business owner—she turned on an out-of-office message and actually unplugged for a vacation. Spoiler alert: there was only one real crisis.

Would You Rather Own a Business in the U.K. or the U.S.?
TIME TO LISTEN: 59:49

Nearly 10 years ago, Simon Bedding, who owns a manufacturing company in England, picked up a copy of Boss Life, Paul Downs' memoir about running (and almost losing) a manufacturing company in Pennsylvania. Simon liked the book enough to email Paul. Paul wrote back. And over the years, they've kind of stayed in touch. This year, as we mark the 250th anniversary of the United States spinning off from the United Kingdom, we thought it would be illuminating to get these two business owners together to compare notes. After all, their countries started with the same language and much of the same legal tradition, but two and a half centuries later, running a business on opposite sides of the Atlantic can feel very different.

In this conversation, Paul and Simon compare taxes, regulation, hiring, health care, government support, and what it's like to build a manufacturing business in their respective countries. Along the way, there are plenty of moments when one of them can't quite believe how the other has to operate. Wait—you can't fire an employee without going before a tribunal? Wait—you have to spend a week every year figuring out health insurance? Wait—your employees don’t have employment contracts?

And yet, for all of their differences, Paul and Simon also discover something else: Whether your factory is in Pennsylvania or southeast England, some challenges are universal. It's hard to find great people. It’s hard to fight city hall. In short, it's hard to build a successful business. And, as Paul puts it, "You're always going to learn something by talking to other business owners."

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